DT 26 - 23 Nowcasting del PIB para Uruguay en base a un modelo de ecuaciones puente

Abstract

In the realm of public policy or general economic decision-making, having timely information regarding the level of economic activity is of utmost importance. In this article we explore two methodologies applied to the Uruguayan case: a nowcasting exercise for GDP based on bridge equations estimated through the GETS methodology; and another based on a univariate model, exploiting the newly released Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (IMAE) by the Central Bank of Uruguay. Based on the nowcasting model, with information available up to September 2023, a year-on-year contraction of 0.2\% was expected in Q3-2023, and - still without information for Q4-2023 - a modest growth of 0.04\% for the year's average. Furthermore, when comparing projections within the sample with those obtained from a naive model (univariate for GDP), it is observed that the former are more accurate. Additionally, the feasibility of conducting pooling to enhance projections is explored.