Who Cares Less? Fertility Decline, Childcare Expansion, and the Changing Organization of Childcare in Uruguay

Many countries are simultaneously experiencing rapid fertility decline and expanding public childcare services. Both processes are expected to reduce unpaid childcare, yet their relative contributions remain understudied. Using nationally representative Time Use Surveys from Uruguay for 2013 and 2021, this paper examines the drivers of the decline in unpaid childcare during a period when the population of children aged zero to five fell by 17 percent and public childcare coverage expanded significantly. We develop an exact accounting decomposition of aggregate weekly childcare hours received by children aged zero to three to separate the contribution of demographic change from changes in care provided by women, men, other household members, and formal institutions. We find that demographic change is the primary driver of the aggregate childcare reduction, while the expansion of institutional childcare accounts for a much smaller share. Within households, the decline in care is driven almost entirely by a reduction in hours provided by women, while contributions from fathers and other adults remain low and stable. Consequently, while the total volume of unpaid childcare fell, the gender distribution of the remaining care became more unequal, with women performing a larger share of the remaining burden. These patterns are not explained by changes in parental labor supply, paid domestic services, or informal care from outside the household. Our findings demonstrate that declining aggregate care needs do not automatically translate into more egalitarian caregiving arrangements.