DT 19/21 - Régimen de crecimiento de la economía uruguaya. Una aproximación desde el lado de la demanda (1908-2017)

This work seeks to identify how changes in the functional distribution of income have had an impact on Uruguayan economic growth in the long-run (1908-2017). Through a model of demand-led growth, the impact of changes in the wage, profit and rent shares in total product on the growth of consumption, investment, exports and imports is measured. Based on this impact, the different growth regimes that the country has transited in the aforementioned period are identified. The identification of wage-led, profit-led, or a possible rent-led, regimes depends on the influence that changes in these shares have had aggregate demand. The results show that, on the one hand, increases in the profit share harmed economic growth in Uruguay in the long-run. This negative impact has been greater since the beginning of the seventies. On the other hand, rises in the wage share and in the rent share stimulated economic growth during the entire period under study. The results of this research improve the historical-economic understanding of the effects of the functional income distribution on economic growth. Furthermore, in illuminates the discussion regarding which policies would have best promoted economic growth through their distributive impact. The estimations suggest that public policies should have favored greater participation of wages in income to promote economic growth.