DT 17/20 - Understanding Uncertainty Shocks in Uruguay through VAR modeling

Using different measures of uncertainty indexes, we quantify how economic uncertainty impacts on a set of nominal and real variables in a small and open economy like Uruguay. Our measures of uncertainty are based on two different methods: newspaper-based and composite index-based, covering roughly 15 years of monthly data. The main findings suggest that economic uncertainty has, to a certain extent, an impact on the real economy, whereas we find no evidence over the financial sector. This result can be linked to the high stability of the Uruguayan economy and the small size of its financial sector.